Part V: Running, Not
Walking, Off the Face of the Cliff
In light of recent
developments in Ukraine, the U.S. State Department has pushed for increased
production of oil and gas in the United States to drive the pricing of fossil
fuel commodities lower to hurt Russia. This may make great sounding bullet
points in political discourse but most oil analysts don’t expect U.S.
production to really drive oil prices down at all. Saudi Arabia is expected to
give up market share to keep oil prices relatively the same, above $100 a
barrel. Yes, oil prices briefly dropped from that range to around $50 a barrel
around 2009, but that was due to the impact of the Great Recession which
slashed demand. There has been a huge flow of funds to managed futures and
exchange traded funds that invest in the oil futures market to help keep oil
prices in a higher range, and for a good reason. It appears that we have hit a
curb in terms of cheap access conventional oil. Now the oil that is being
pulled out of the ground is being captured at a greater cost, be it with
fracking or deep sea oil drilling. That means you want a higher price commodity
so the profit margins make sense. If the cost of oil drops, profit margins
shrink, and at some point, it becomes unprofitable to go after the oil.
Last week, House
Energy & Commerce Committee reported the bipartisan bill HR 6, the Domestic
Prosperity and Global Freedom Act, to the floor of the House of
Representatives. The goal of the bill is to encourage a further increase in
domestic fracking of natural gas and convert it to liquefied natural gas (LNG)
for export, with the goal of selling the LNG to Ukraine. Again this came from
State Department recommendations, and that’s a department that has been acting
more like a corporate contractor and less like a department of diplomats for
decades. None of these threats of competition have put any scare into Russia’s
stock market, which continually goes higher anyway.
Our domestic and
foreign energy policy seems to be firmly based solely on keeping a firmly
entrenched oil and gas sector highly profitable. That’s the sole factor that is
driving the fracking boom. Get the oil out of the ground and into the market as
soon as possible at all costs regardless of the consequences.
Originally it was
believed that the singular goal of a business is to create a customer. The jobs
of a company’s management is to focus on their primary constituents, their
employees, their vendors, and especially and foremost, their customers. There
was a popular phrase ‘the customer is always right.’ So if management is able
to properly execute on its business plan, and grow its customer base, the
shareholders will ultimately be rewarded via higher stock valuations.
Since the late
1970s, when the Chicago School of Economics began to dominate economic thought,
and that idea completely changed. The singular goal of management is to
maximize shareholder value, and the theory of finance focused on building
mathematical models of companies using spreadsheets to calculate all the
different ways this can be achieved. The idea is that shareholders are taking
all the risk and are the true owners, thus deserve consideration over all the
other constituents. Bizarre as it may seem, the idea that the goal of a
business is to create a customer is now considered radical liberal thought,
even though a business can not exist without customers. The focus on
shareholder value maximization by corporate management is the accepted doctrine.
The result is corporate management being caught in an institutional trap. The
CEO of an oil and gas company has to focus on short term profits. If a CEO
focuses on longer term issues like investing in research and development for
renewable energies, and shifting resource mix to take less out of the ground,
the shareholder valuation could be punished and the CEO becomes replaced.
Actually, since the 1980s, corporate management is compensated primarily
through stock options to make sure their interests are aligned with that of
shareholders, so they easily keep in line.
The current economic
doctrine and structure of our financial markets primarily encourage laser
targeted focus on the short term only. If short term profits mean greater costs
for society in terms of environmental damage and harming the health of people,
so be it.
The amount of wealth
in the oil and gas sector is so large and concentrated, that it easily
influences and effectively controls the politics on the local level and on the
international level. Consider for example the largest publicly traded oil and
gas company, ExxonMobil, which has revenues in excess of $420 billion a year.
ExxonMobil’s revenues are greater than the gross domestic products of entire
nations, like Denmark or Venezuela. As the country is transnational, it has
more influence than those entire nations as well. The multinational oil and gas
corporations make sizable political campaign contributions and have their own
army of lobbyists, and are able to easily influence regulatory agencies. Hence
the politics can be easily influenced to insure legislation will always be
favorable to achieving higher short term profits, billions of dollars of tax
subsidies continue to shower the sector, and big multinationals in that sector
manage to pay next to nothing in taxes. ExxonMobil’s effective tax rate
continues to be around 16%, well below the 35% standard for companies.
ExxonMobil’s CEO Rex Tillerson continually advocates for little regulation on
fracking and states those concerns are overblown. In 2012, ExxonMobil acquired
one of the largest of the natural gas focused fracking companies, XTO Energy
based in Fort Worth, Texas.
This past February,
Rex Tillerson joined a class action lawsuit to stop Cross Timbers Water Supply
from building a water tower that will supply water for fracking projects. Why
did he sue the company? The water tower is outside the development where his $5
million home is located. He has continually screamed that regulation on
fracking will hold back America’s growth and global competitiveness, but of
course, “not in my backyard.”
ExxonMobil has doled
out money to the conservative think-tank, the Heartland Group, which basically
focuses on shaping public opinion by promoting denial of global warming/climate
change. The Heartland Group sends talking points to anchors of Fox News,
publishes articles in major publications, have their own group of speakers, and
so forth. However, CEO Rex Tillerson, himself, does not deny global warming at
all. Last year, in front of a group of elite peers, he gave a talk to the
Council of Foreign Relations, and stated: ”As a species that’s why we’re all
still here: we have spent our entire existence adapting. So we will adapt to
this. It’s an engineering problem, and it has engineering solutions.” He went
on to give examples suggesting that areas of crop production can easily be
relocated. Unfortunately, this is a sharp disconnect from reality. We typically
think of areas of crop production as farms, and as activist Bill McKibben points
out, the ice in the tundra may be melting, but there is no soil there.
At the last
shareholder meeting of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson told an assembled group that
it would do no good to stop and try to cut carbon emissions. We are already
headed on a specific course, and then asked: “What good is it to save the
planet if humanity suffers?” In other words, enjoy what we can, and let’s not
try to prolong the agony of the world as it dies. He’s pulling a minimum of $40
million a year in annual income, so at least his days and his children’s will
always be comfortable, and everyone else is expected to fend for themselves. At
that same meeting, over three quarters of the shareholders voted down a
resolution that would require ExxonMobil to set goals for reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions from using the company’s products. The major
shareholders are hedge funds and other financial institutions.
Swiss American
psychiatrist Elizabeth Kubler Ross described what she saw as the phases that
people go through as they face that they are going to die of a terminal
illness. The first was denial, the second was anger, the third was grief, and
finally, an acceptance phase as one came to peace with facing death. It almost
appears that CEO Rex Tillerson has fallen into a type of acceptance stage in
terms of what we face due to his industry’s behavior.
One has to wonder if
other corporate leaders in the oil and gas sector seem to have fallen into this
acceptance phase. Based on the behavior of the industry, some most likely have.
Others, such as Charlie and David Koch of the privately run Koch Industries,
still seem trapped in the denial stage. Whatever state they appear to be in,
they certainly should not be in a position to make a decision on behalf of the
population.
What is clearly
certain is that we have a calcified out of touch corporate elite that have too
much influence over the politics and effectively wiped out democracy. Unless
some major changes can be made to regulate the industry enough to prevent
further environmental damage, short term profits will come first and the
children of the world face a bleak future.
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